Institutional_investors_other_topics_in_portfolio_management_and_cases
portfolio management for institutional investors
institutional investors: common characteristics
new
old
S
stakeholders
L
liquidity needs
liquidity needs
L
liquidity and investment horizon
time horizon
E
external constraints
uniqueness
R
risk
risk
I
investment objectives
return
A
asset allocation
scale
may impact investment capabilities, access to strategies, liquidity, trading costs
have a high minimum investment size
outsource 外部资源
scale benefits
long-term investment horizon
pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and foundations have long investment horizons and low liquidity needs. Low liquidity needs allow these institutions to invest in a broad range of alternative asset classes
banks and insurance companies tend to be much more asset/liability focused
regulatory frameworks
governance frameworks
board of directors and investment committee
board comprise company representative directors, employee representative directors, and independent directors
principal-agent issues
overview of investment policy
investment approaches:
Norway model:
sovereign wealth fund, 60%/40% equity/fixed-income, largely passive investments
pros: low cost, transparent, suitable for large scale, easy for board to understand
cons: limited value-added potential
endowment model
high alternative exposure, active management and outsourcing
pros: high value-added potential
cons: expensive and difficult to implement for most SWF because of large sizes; high costs
Canada model: pension plan
high alternative exposure, active management and internally managed assets
pros: high added value potential and development of internal capabilities
cons: potentially expensive and difficult to manage
Liability driven (banks and insurers)
focus on hedging liabilities and interest rate risk including via duration-matched, fixed-income exposure
pros: explicit recognition of liabilities as part of the investment process
cons: certain risks (e.g., longevity risk, inflation risk) may not change
pension funds
characteristics
DB plan
DC plan
benefit payments
defined by contract between employee and the pension plan
benefit are determined by the performance of investments selected by the participant
contribution
the employer is the primary contribution
the employee is the primary contributor
investment decision making
the pension fund determines how and what
the employee determines how and what
investment risk
employer bears the risk
employee bears the risk
mortality/ longevity risk
mortality risk is pooled. the individual does not bear any of the risk of outliving his/her retirement benefits
the employee bears the risk of not meeting his/ her objectives for this account. the employee bears longevity risk
stakeholders
DB plan: employer; plan beneficiaries (employees and retirees); the CIO and investment staff; the investment committee and/or board; and the government, unions, and shareholders in the case of corporate DB plans
DC plan: plan sponsor (employer), plan beneficiaries (e.g., the employee), the board, and the government.
liabilities and investment horizon
DB plan
vesting
: a term indicating that employees only become eligible to receive a pension after meeting certain criteria, typically a minimum number of years of service.some key elements common among DB plans in the calculation of expected cash flows:
service/ tenure
salary/ earnings
mortality/ longevity
Funded ratio = fair value of plan assets / PV of DB obligations
factor
impact of increase in factor
service/ tenure
increase liability
salary
increase liability
longevity
increase liability
additional contributions
increase liability
employee turnover
lower liability
expected investment
lower liability
discount rate
lower liability
DC plan
participant-switching life-cycle options
: automatically switch DC plan members into a more conservative asset mix as their age increases. There may be several automatic de-risking switches at different age targets.participant/cohort option
: pools the DC member with a cohort that has similar target retirement date
liquidity needs
DB plan: liquidity needs are generally higher when:
proportion of retired lives in the plan is higher. Frozen plans will have higher liquidity needs since no addtional contribution.
workforce is older
if plan well funded, the plan sponsor may reduce contributions, generating a need to hold higher balances of liquid assets to pay benefits
the plan participants have the ability to switch or withdraw from the plan
DC plan:
age of the workforce and ability of participants to switch or withdraw from the plan
risk considerations of DB
category
variable
explanation
plan status
plan funded status (surplus or deficit)
higher pension surplus implies greater risk tolerance
sponsor financial status and profitability
debt to total assets; current and expected profitability; size of plan compared to market capitalization of company
lower debt ratios and higher current and expected profitability imply greater risk tolerance; large company size relative to pension plan size implies greater risk tolerance
sponsor and pension fund common risk exposures
correlation of sponsor operating results with pension asset returns
lower the correlation, greater the risk tolerance
plan features
provision for early retirement; provision for lump-sum distributions
such options tend to reduce the duration of plan liabilities, implying lower risk tolerance
workforce characteristics
age of workforce; active lives relative to retired lives
the younger the workforce and greater the proportion of active lives, the greater the duration of plan liabilities and the greater the risk tolerance
investment objectives
DB plan
the primary objective: to achieve a long-term target return over a specified investment horizon with an appropriate level of risk that allows the plan to meet its contractual liabilities.
the secondary objective could be to minimize the present value of expected cash contributions
if underfunded, additional contribution or make g_A > g_L
DC plan
primary objective: to prudently grow assets that will support spending needs in retirement
secondary objective: outperform the long-term policy benchmark
external constraints
regulations
tax: favorable tax treatment
accounting rules
asset allocation
equity decrease from 57% to 46%
alternative increased from 4% to 25%
home bias
Sovereign wealth funds
type
objective
examples
budget stabilization funds
set up to insulate the budget and economy from commodity price volatitily and external shocks
Russia's Oil Stabilization Fund
development funds
established to allocate resources to priority socio-economic projects, usually infrastructure
Ireland Strategic Investment Fund
Saving funds
Intended to share wealth across generations by transforming non-renewable assets into diversified financial assets
Russia's National Wealth Fund
Reserve funds
Intended to reduce the negative carry costs of holding reserves or to earn higher return on ample reserves
China Investment Corporation
Pension reserve funds
set up to meet identified future outlfows with respect to pension-related contingent type liabilities on governments' balance sheets
National Social Security Fund (China)
stakeholders
current and future citizens
investment offices
board
government
liability and investment horizon
budget stabilization funds
uncertain liabilities, relatively short investment horizons
returns in excess of inflation with a low probability of a negative return in any year
development funds
liabilities not clearly defined, overall objective is to raise a country's economic growth or to diversify the economy
saving funds
liabilities are long-term. Some saving funds have a real return objective or an explicit spending policy
reserve funds
achieve a return higher than that on FX reserves
monetory stabilization bonds
investment horizons are very long
pension reserve funds
long-term investment horizons
accumulation phase / decumulation phase
meet future pension
liquidity needs
budget stabilization funds
highest liquidity level
development funds
generally low liquidity needs
saving funds
lowest liquidity
reserve funds
liquidity needs are lower compared to stabilization funds but higher compared to saving funds
pension reserve funds
liquidity needs vary, being lower during the accumulation stage and higher during the decumulation stage
saving funds < pension reserve funds on accumulation stage < development funds, reserve funds < pension reserve funds on decumulation stage < budget stabilization funds
external constraints
legal regulatory
generally tax exempt
investment objectives
SWF type
Investment objectives
budget stabilization funds
capital preservation; aims to earn returns above inflation with a low probability of losses; should avoid assets correlated with the source of government revenues
development funds
support a nation's economic development and increase long-run economic growth; implicit objective is to earn a real rate of return greater than real domestic GDP growth or productivity growth
saving funds
maintain purchasing power of the assets over time while making ongoing spending on government budgetary needs
reserve funds
earn a rate of return in excess of the yield the government / central bank pays on bonds it has issued
pension reserve funds
earn return to meet future unfunded pension and social care payments promised by the government
asset allocation
budget stabilization funds
the majority of fixed income and cash is due to the defensive nature of the fund
development funds
these are driven by the socioeconomic mission fo the fund (e.g., investment in local infrastructure projects)
saving funds
a long investment horizon means relatively high allocations toward equities and alternative investments such as private equity and real assets
reserve funds
allocation are similar to those of saving funds, but with lower allocation to alternatives due to the potentially higher liquidity needs
pension reserve funds
these have high allocations to equities and alternatives due to a long investment horizon and low liquidity needs in the accumulation phase
university endowments
stakeholders
current and future students, alumni and university employees
stakeholders often have representation on board or committee, such as alumni who may be investment professionals
liability and investment horizon
a perpetual investment horizon
liabilities are future payouts promised to the university
should ensure smoothing payouts to insulate the university from market volatility
spending each year = weighted average of the previous year's spending and usually between 4% ~ 6%
spending amount in year t+1 = w [spending amount in year t (1 + inflation rate)] + (1 - w) spending rate average AUM
liquidity needs
relatively low (compared to foundations) liquidity needs
high significant allocations to illiquid asset
investment objectives
a total real rate of return of 5%, to be achieved over 3 to 5 years, with expected volatility of returns 10% to 15%
secondary investment objective: outperform the long-term policy benchmark
tertiary investment objective: outperform a set of pre-defined peers (average of the 20 largest university endowments)
asset allocation
rely heavily on alternative investments
private foundations
stakeholders
founding family, donors, grant recipients, and the broader community
board members for foundations are typically individuals involved with grant making and not necessarily investment professionals
mission-related investing: Aims to direct a significant portion of assets in excess of annual grants into projects promoting a foundation’s mission.
较高成本完成特定任务
liability and investment horizon
perpetual investment horizons, although some foundations may have finite lives
legally required to pay out 5% of assets plus investment expenses
debt especially during periods of market stress
rely almmost exclusively on their investment portfolios to support operating budgets. More conservative, more liquid investment portfolios compared to endowments
a trend toward limited-life foundations as some founders seek to maintain control of spending while they are still alive
liquidity needs
the liquidity needs is relatively low but still higher than those of university endowments
US Foundation
US university endowment
purpose
grant-making for social, educational, and charitable purposes; principal preservation focus
general support of institution or restricted support; principal preservation focus
stakeholders
founding family, donors, grant recipients, and braoder community that may benefit from foundation's activities
current/ future students, alumni, university faculty and administration, and the larger university community
liabilities/ spending
legally mandated to spend 5% of assets + investment expenses + 100% of donations
flexible spending rules (headline spending rate with between 4% and 6% of assets) with smoothing
other liability considerations
future gifts and donations, or just one-time gift?
gifts and donations, percentage of operating budget supported by endowment, and ability to issue debt.
very long-term/ perpetual (except limited-life foundations)
perpetual
risk high risk tolerance with some short-term liquidity needs
high risk tolerance with low liqudity needs
liquidity needs
annual net spending is at least 5% of assets
annual net spending is typically 2% to 4% of assets, after alumni gifts and donations
external constraints affecting investment
legal and regulatory constraints
tax and accounting constraints
investment objectives
primary investment objective: to generate a total real return over consumer price inflation of 5%, plus investment expenses, with a reasonable expected volatility (10% - 15% std) over a 3 - 5 year period
secondary investment objective: outperform the policy benchmark with a specified tracking error budget
asset allocation
Foundations tend to follow a similar investment approach compared to endowments. Two of the most notable differences between foundations and endowments:
foundations support the entire budget of their organization, while universities have significant other sources of financing available besides the endowment
foundations are mandated to pay out at least 5% of their assets to maintain tax-exempt status and typically receive no additional inflows in the form of gifts and donations, whereas university endowments typically have a net payout of less than 5%
larger foundations have higher percentage of alternatives investment and lower portion of bonds
banks and insurers
bank
insurer
life insurers
property and casualty (P&C) insurers
banks
stakeholders
external parties: shareholders, creditors, customers, credit rating agencies, regulators, and the communities where they operate
internal parties: employees, management, and boards of directors
on the liability side, bank customers are comprised of a variety of depositors: financing, safekeeping, transaction, fixed-income issuers
on the asset side, mortgages, commercial real estate loans and commercial and industrial loans
liabilities and investment horizon
bank assets = loans + debt securities + currency + deposits with central banks, receivables and bullion
bank liabilities = deposits + short-term funding + longer term debt
Bank deposits include the following:
time deposits or term deposits: interest-bearing accounts that have a specified maturity date. This category includes savings accounts and certificates of deposit.
demand deposits: accounts that can be drawn upon regularly and without notice. This category includes checking accounts and certain savings accounts that are often accessible through online banks or automated teller machines.
The difference between the long time horizon of the institution and much shorter maturity of most of its assets and liability may ssem counterintuittive. The long-term horizon of the bank is evidenced by: 1) cutting back new lending, 2) selling part of its existing loan porfolio, 3) increasing allocations to short-maturity, liquid securities, and 4) decreasing leverage through fewer large wholesale time deposits
liquidity needs
In general, contrasting commercial banks and retail-oriented banks, commercial banks have a higher cost of funds and lower liquidity because of wholesale funding of loan commitments and other contingent commitments. Conversely, retail banks have a lower cost of funds and better liquidity because their retail deposits are relatively low cost and tend to be more stable.
insurers
stakeholders
external parties: shareholders, derivatives counterparties, policyholders, creditors, regulators and rating agencies
internal parties: employees, management, and boards of directors.
general account: account holding assets to fund future liabilities from traditional life insurance and fixed annuities, the products in which the insurer bears all the risks particularly mortality risk and longevity risk.
separate accounts: accounts holding assets to fund future liabilities from variable life insurance and variable annuities, the products in which customers make investment decisions from a menu of options and themselves bear investment risk
liabilities and investment horizon
life insurers: face a liability stream and timme horzion with a long duration, 20 to 40 years
property & casualty insurers: face a shorter duration liability stream and investment horizon than life insurers with lower probability of occurrence and potentially higher cost, i.e., short durationo and high uncertainty
liquidity needs
liquidity needs can vary greatly based on the business line
internal liquidity: cash and cash equivalents
external liquidity: issue bonds and access credit lines
manage short-term liquidity by actively buying and selling repurchase agreements
external constrints affecting investment
legal and regulatory constraints
clearly and contractually defined
the need to regulate banks and insurance companies at high levels, rather than local
accounting and tax considerations
standard financial accounting
statutory accounting: usually results in lower earnings and lower common equity capital
true economic accounting: provide best picture of an entity's assets, liabilities and changes in economic well-being
invesment objectives
banks: manage the bank's liquidity and risk position relative to its non-securities assets, derivatives positions, liabilities, and shareholders' capilitalization
insurers: manage the investment porfolios with a focus on liquidity as well as interest rate, foreign exchange, credit and other risk factor
banks and insurers - balance sheet management and investment considerations
In the case of banks and insurance companies, the need is to fund deposits, policy claims, derivatives payoffs, and debtholders.
The underlying investment strategy is mainly liability driven investing (LDI as earlier defined)
so we have
Small losses in the market value of assets can have a pronounced negative effect on the institution's equity account because of the leverage factor
Financial institutions face the possibility of loss from adverse changes in the market value of liabilities.
insurers company: unexpectedly high policy loss claim
banks: make a forward-funding commitment, the exercise of a guarantee, or a loss on forward currency purchase contracts.
portfolio strategy considerations
main factors affected
explanation/ tationale
additional regulatory concerns
diversified fixed-income investments
decreases sigma_A
high-quality bond/ debt investment
decreases sigma_A
maintain reasonable balance between asset and liability durations
increase rho
common stock investments
increase sigma_A typically decreases rho
derivatives transparency, collateralization
decreases both sigma_A and sigma_L and increase rho
liquidity of porfolio investments
decreases sigma_A
surrender penalties
decrease sigma_L
such penalties cushion losses to financail institutions for having to pay back liabilities at par when rising interest rates would otherwise have reduced the discounted present value of the obligations
prepaymant penalties on debt investments
increase rho
When interest rates are declining, borrowers must incur a penalty to repay loans at par to refinance.
Also, prepayment penalties help institutions offset rising values of their fixed-rate liabilities in falling rate environments. | | | catastrophic insurance risks | increases sigma_L | | | | predicatability of underwriting losses | decreases sigma_L | High frequency, low cost loss events caused by law of large numbers make total insurance liabilities less uncertain. | | | diversifying insurance business | decreases sigma_L | | | | variable annuities | increases rho, and sigma_A & sigma_L diminish in relevance | | |
Trade strategy and execution
Motivations to trade
profit seeking
short-term profit motivated trading
long-term profit motivated trading
risk management/ hedging needs
cash flow needs
corporate actions/ index reconstitutions/ margin calls
Trading strategies and strategy selection
trade strategy inputs
order characteristics
side: buy, sell, cover, or short
size
relative size (% of ADV)
security characteristics
security type
short-term alpha
price volatility
security liquidity
market conditions: liquidity crises
user-based considerations: trading cost risk aversion
market impact and execution risk:
Trader's dilemma: Trading too fast results in too much market impact, but trading too slow results in too much market risk
Reference prices
pre-trade benchmark
decision price
previous close
opening price
arrival price
intraday benchmark
VMAP(volume weighted average price)
TWAP
post-trade benchmark
closing price
price target benchmark
Trade strategies
short-term alpha: short-term alpha-driven equity trade
long-term alpha: long-term alpha-driven fixed-income trade
risk rebalance: buy/sell basket trade to rebalance a fund's risk exposures
cash flow driven: client redemption trade to raise proceeds
cash flow driven: cash equitization trade to invest a new client mandate
Trade execution
Trade implementation choices
principal trades/ broker risk trades, market makers and dealers become a disclosed counterparty to their clients' orders and buy securities into or sell securities from their own inventory or book.
quote-driven, over-the-counter, or off-exchange markets: in such bilateral dealer markets, customers trade at prices quoted by dealers.
request for quote (RFQ): A non-binding quote provided by a market maker or dealer to a potential buyer or seller upon request. Commonly used in fixed income markets these quotes are only valid at the time they are provided.
Direct market access (DMA): Access in which market participants can transact orders directly with the order book of an exchange using a broker's exchange connectivity.
Algorithmic trading
execution algorithms
scheduled: POV(percentage of volume), VWAP, TWAP
liquidity seeking: opportunistic algorithms
arrival price: Arrival price algorithms seek to trade close to current market prices at the time the order is received for execution
Dark strategies/liquidity aggregators: execute shares away from “lit” markets
smart order routers: choose best order and venue
profit-seeking algorithms
comparison of markets
equities
alternative trading systems
multilateral trading facilities
fixed incomme
exchange-traded derivatives
off-excahnge (OTC) derivatives
spot currencies
Trade evaluation
trade cost measurement
implementation shortfall: difference between the return for a notional or paper portfolio
where, S = total order shares, S > 0 for buy, S < 0 for sell, Pd = price at the time of the investment decision, and Pn = the current price
expanded implementaiton shortfall
Delay cost: The (trading related) cost associated with not submitting the order to the market in a timely manner
trade governance
meaning of best execution
executing price
trading costs
speed of execution
likelihood of execution and settlement
order size
nature of the trade
factors determining the optimal order execution approach
urgency of an order
charactreristics of the securities traded
characteristics of the execution venues used
investment strategy objectives
rationale for a trade
listing of eligible brokers and execution venues
quality of service
financial stability
reputation
settlement capabilities
speed of execution
cost competitiveness
willingness to commit capital
process to momitor execution arrangements
trade submission: has the trading/ execution strategy been implemented consistent with the investment process, and is it optimal for the asset type traded?
what was the execution quality of a trade relative to its benchmark
is there an appropriate balance between trading costs and opportunity costs
could better execution have been achieved using a differenct trading strategy, different intermeidaries, or different trading venues
trading records may be used to do the following:
address client concerns
address regulator concerns
assist in improving execution quality
monitor the parties involved in trading/ order execution
Portfolio performance evaluation
the components of performance evaluation
performance measurement - what was the portfolio's performance
performance attribution - how was the performance achieved
performance appraisal - was the performance achieved through manager skill or luck?
excess return: 1) the difference between the portfolio return and the benchmark return; 2) the return in excess of the risk-free rate
performance attribution
an effective perfromance attribution process must
account for all of the portfolio's return or risk exposure,
reflect the investment decision-making process,
quantify the active decisions of the portfolio manager, and
provide a complete understanding of the excess return/ risk of the portfolio
performance attribution includes: return attribution and risk attribution
micro attribution: attribution at the portfolio manager level
macro attribution: attribution at the sponsor level
performance attribution may be either returns based, holdings based, or transactions based.
returns-based attribution: uses only the total portfolio returns over a period to identify the components of the investment process that have generated the returns
holdings-based attribution: a "buy and hold" attribution approach which calculates the return of portfolio and benchmark components based upon the price and foreign exchange rate changes applied to daily snapshots of portfolio holdings
transactions-based attribution: an attribution approach that captures the impact of intra-day trades and exogenous events such as a significant class action settlement
approaches to return attribution
arithmetic attribution ($R - B$) / geometric attribution ($\frac{1 + R}{1 - B} - 1$)
equity return attribution - the Brinson Model
where $A_i$ is allocation attribution, $A_i= (w_i - W_i) B_i$,
$S_i$ is selection attribution, $S_i = W_i(R_i - B_i)$,
$I_i$ is interaction attribution, $I_i = (w_i - W_i)(R_i - B_i)$
equity return attribution - Factor-Based Return Attribution
Carhart model:
where
$R_p$ and $R_f$ = the return on the portfolio and the risk-free rate of return, respectively
$a_p$ = "alpha" or return in excess of that expected given the portfolio's level of systematic risk
$b_p$ = the sensitivity of the portfolio to the given factor
$RMRF$ = the return on a value-weighted equity index in excess of the one-month T-bill rate
$SMB$ = small minus big, a size factor, < 0 means large-cap oriented
$HML$ = high minus low, a value factor, high book-to-price - low book-to-price, > 0 means value-oriented
$WML$ = winner minus losers, a momentum factor, past year's winners - past year's losers
$E_p$ = an error term that represents the portion of the return to the portfolio, p, not explained by the model
fixed-income return attribution
exposure decomposition - duration based
yield curve decomposition - duration based
yield curve decomposition - full repricing based
we can infer the following about the portfolio investment process over this period:
yield
roll
shift
slope
curvature
spread
specific spread
residual
risk attribution
investment decision-making process
relative(vs. benchmark)
absolute
bottom up
position's marginal contribution to tracking risk
position's marginal contribution to to total risk
top down
attribute tracking risk to relative allocation and selection decisions
factor's marginal contribution to total risk and specific risk
factor based
factor's marginal contribution to tracking risk and active specific risk
factor's marginal contribution to total risk and specific risk
for relative, a common measure of risk is tracking risk; for absolute mandates, the risk of portfolio is explained by exposures to the market, size and style factors, and the specific risk due to stock selections.
marginal contribution to total risk: bottom-up with an absolute return target
marginal contribution to tracking risk: bottom-up with a relative return target
factor's marginal contributions to total risk and specific risk: top-down with an absolute return target
return attribution analysis at multiple levels
macro attribution
micro attribution
benchmarking investments and managers
in investment practice, we use benchmarks as
asset-based benchmarks
asset-based benchmarks
absolute return benchmark
broad market indexes
style indexes
factor-model-based benchmarks: $R_p = a_p + b_1 F_1 + b_2 F_2 ... b_k F_k + \epsilon_p$
returns-based benchmark
manager universes
custom security-based benchmarks
properties of a valid benchmark
unambiguous
investable
measurable
appropriate
reflective of current investment opinions:
specified in advance: the benchmark must be constructed prior to evaluation period so that the manager is not judged against benchmarks created after the fact.
accountable: the manager should be able to demonstrate the validity of his or her benchmark
evaluating benchmark quality
where
M = market index return, S = manager's style return, A = active management decision
benchmarking alternative investments
hedge fund investments
real estate investments
private equity
commodity investments
managed derivatives
distressed securities
Performance appraisal
distinguish investment skill from luck
appraisal measures
Sharpe ratio
Treynor ratio
Information ratio
Appraisal ratio
Sortino ratio
Capture ratios
Case study in portfolio management: institutional
tools at insitutional investors disposal to manage a portfolio's liquidity risk, including:
liquidity profiling and time-to-cash tables
time-to-cash table and liquidity budget
time to cash
liquidity classification
liquidity budget (% of portfolio)
< 1 week
highly liquid
at least 10%
< 1 quater
liquid
at least 35%
< 1 year
semi-liquid
at least 50%
> 1 year
illiquid
up to 50%
rebalancing and commitment strategies
systematic rebalancing policies: such as calendar rebalancing and percent-range rebalancing
automatic adjustment mechanisms
strees testing analysis
derivatives
earning an illiquidity premium
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