Equity
Equity valuation: application and processes
The general steps in the equity valuation process are:
Understand the business
Forecast company performance
Select the appropriate valuation model
Convert the forecasts into a valuation
Apply the valuation conclusions
going concern assumption = a company will continue to operate as a business, as opposed to going out of business.
Elements of industry structure
Threat of new entrants in the industry
Threat of substitutes
Bargaining power of buyers
Bargaining power of suppliers
Rivalry among existing competitors
Return concepts
Holding period return
holding period return = r = $\frac{P_1 - P_0 + CF_1}{P_0}$
realized holding period return
expected holding period return
calculate an equity risk premium
equity risk premium = required return on equity index - risk-free rate
required return for stock j = risk-free return + $\beta_j$ * (equity risk premium)
estimates of the equity risk premium
Historical estimates: survivorship bias
forward-looking estimates
Gordon growth model
Supply-side estimates (Macroeconomic models)
equity risk premium = $(1+i)\times(1+r{EPS})\times(1+g{P/E}) - 1 + Y - r_f$
where:
i = expected inflation
r_{EPS} = expected real growth in EPS
g_{P/E} = expected changes in the P/E ratio
Y = the expected yield on the index
r_f = the expected risk-free rate
survey estimates
CAPM
required return on stock j = risk-free rate + (equity risk premium * beta of j)
multifactor models
required return = RF + (risk premium)_1 + (risk premium)_2 + ... + (risk premium)_n
(risk premium)_i = (factor sensitivity)_i * (factor risk premium)_i
Fama-French model
required return of stock j = $RF + \beta{mkt, j} \times (R{mkt} - RF) + \beta{SMB, j} \times (R{small} - R{big}) + \beta{HML, j} \times (R{HBM} - R{LBM})$
where:
(R_{mkt} - RF) = return on a value-weighted market index minus the risk-free rate
$(R{small} - R{big})$ = a small-cap return premium
$(R{HBM} - R{LBM})$ = a value return premium
Pastor-Stambaugh model = Fama-French model + liquidity factor
Macroeconomic multifactor models
confidence risk
time horizon risk
inflation risk
business cycle risk
market timing risk
Build-up method
required return = RF + equity risk premium + size premium +specific-company premium
Bond-yield plus risk premium method
Beta estimates
Adjusted beta for public companies
adjusted beta = (2/3 regression beta) + (1/3 1.0)
Beta estimates for thinly traded stocks and nonpublic companies
identify a benchmark company, XYZ, which is publicly traded and similar to ABC in its operations
unlever the beta for XYZ:
unlevered beta for XYZ = (beta of XYZ) / (1 + D/E of XYZ)
lever up the unlevered beta for XYZ to get an estimate of ABC's beta
estimate of beta for ABC = (unlevered beta of XYZ) * (1 + D/E of ABC)
Industry and company analysis
equity valuation method
bottom-up: starts with analysis of an individual company
top-down: begins with expectations about a macroeconomic vairbale, ofthen the growth rate of nominal GDP.
hybrid
forecast the following costs:
forecast COGS = (1 - gross margin)(estimate of future revenue)
income tax expense
statutory rate
effective tax rate
cash tax rate
Discounted dividend valuation
The fundamental value represents not only the present value of the future dividends (on a non-growth basis) but also the present value of the growth opportunites (PVGO):
P/E ratios
justified leading P/E = $\frac{P_0}{E_1} = \frac{1 - b}{r - g}$
justified trailing P/E = $\frac{P_0}{E_0} = \frac{(1 - b) \times (1 + g)}{r - g}$
H-Model
sustainable growth rate (SGR) using DuPont analysis
where:
b = earning retention rate = 1 - divident payout rate
g = ((net income - dividends) / net income) (net income / sales) (sales / total assets) (total assets / equity) = R P A T
FCFF and FCFE
FCFF = Cash revenue - WCInv -FCInv - Cash operating expense
FCFE = FCFF - Interest payment + net borrowing
firm value = FCFF discounted at the WACC
equtiy value = FCFE discounted at the required return on equity
equity value = firm value - market value of debt
FCFF = NI + NCC + [Int * (1 - tax rate)] - FCInv - WCInv
where:
NCC = noncash charges
FCInv = capital expenditures - proceeds from sales of long-term assets
(Almost) FCFF = (NI + NCC - WCInv) - FCInv = CFO - FCInv
(Actual) FCFF = (NI + NCC - WCInv) + Int(1 - tax rate) - FCInv = CFO Int(1 - tax rate) - FCInv
FCFF = EBIT(1 - tax rate) + Dep - FCINv - WCInv
FCFF = EBITDA(1 - tax rate) + tax rate * Dep - FCInv - WCInv
FCFE = NI + NCC - FCInv - WCInv + net borrowing
For forecasting FCFE, use:
FCFE = NI [(1 - DR) (FCInv - Dep)] - [(1 - DR) WCInv]
value of the firm = $\frac{FCFF_1}{WACC - g} = \frac{FCFF_0 \times (1+g)}{WACC - g}$
value of equity = $\frac{FCFE_1}{WACC - g} = \frac{FCFE_0 \times (1+g)}{WACC - g}$
PEG ratio = $\frac{P/E ratio}{g}$
EV = market value of common stock + market value of preferred equity + market value of debt + minority interest - cash and investments
earings surprise = reported EPS - expected EPS
SUE = earnings surprise / standard deviation of earings surprise
Residual income valuation
EVA (Economic value added) = NOPAT - (WACC * capital) = EBIT(1 - t) - $WACC
MVA (Market value added) = market value - total capital
Discount for lack of control
DLOC = 1 - 1 / (1 + control premium)
total discount = 1 - [(1 - DLOC)(1 - DLOM)]
where:
DLOM = discount for lack of mmarketability
REITS
NAV = Value of operating real estate + value of other tangible assets - value of liabilities
FFO = net earnings + depreciation + deferred tax charges +/- Losses/gains from sales of property and debt restructuring
AFFO = FFO - non cash rent - maintenance-type capital expenditutrd and leasing costs
Last updated